🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."